- NTSync coming in Kernel 6.11 for better Wine/Proton game performance and porting.
- Wine-Wayland last 4/5 parts left to be merged before end of 2024
- Wayland HDR/Game color protocol will be finished before end of 2024
- Nvidia 555/560 will be out for a perfect no stutter Nvidia performance
- KDE/Gnome reaching stability and usability with NO FKN ADS
- VR being usable
- More Wine development and more Games being ported
- Better LibreOffice/Word compatibility
- Windows 10 coming to EOL
- Improved Linux simplicity and support
- Web-native apps (Including Msft Office and Adobe)
- .Net cross platform (in VSCode or Jetbrains Rider)
What else am I missing?
Most of the points listed here don’t matter a hoot to the average user.
That’s slowly changing though, as the enschittification of windows continues. They may not care to know about the details, but all of those points do fall under the “it just works” catagory. And they do care about that.
I agree. However if you look through the other comments in here, you’ll see a LOT more examples of stuff that fall into the “it just doesn’t work” category instead. And most of them are a lot more obvious to casual / new users. Those would be the ones that really require priority if Linux is ever to become mainstream.
True.
The only thing the average consumer will even notice is the end of support for Windows 10. However, once the prompt to upgrade to Windows 11 appears, 99% will click “yes” and forget about it. They might be a little annoyed by the changes, but that will be all.
Nobody will notice end of support for Windows 10. Why would they? Nobody noticed end of support for Windows 7, either, and it’s still up and running in many places where it really shouldn’t.
End users don’t give a crap about security updates and as long as users don’t bump into a lack of third party driver they won’t even notice a difference. And yeah, like every other time they will eventually update to the current version once more practical issues crop up. 10 to 11 isn’t even close to the harshest upgrade path MS has deployed.
However, once the prompt to upgrade to Windows 11 appears, 99% will click “yes” and
be informed that their computer does not support Win11
and forget about it.
Any source regarding “VR being usable” on linux? The current development seems pretty stale and it doesn’t seem like that’s gonna change anytime soon, especially if you own any Oculus headsets that predates the quest. I do hope the rumors of valve making the deckard are true, but those are just rumors and should be taken with a grain of salt.
Any source regarding “VR being usable” on linux?
I use VR with my Index almost every week on Linux. Filled to the brim with minor issues but definitely useable.
Still looking forward to a Deckard announcement, the Index is starting to show its age.
SteamVR 2.0 dropped a bit ago, though it didn’t do much for Linux users…
But it does point to something still happening with VR over at Valve.
I mean… it just works? Since the Index is out it’s just been working basically. Not sure what else would be needed. Sure being able to use Quest headsets would be nice but unless Meta decides to open up, I don’t think it would happen. IMHO that’s a vendor problem, not the OS lacking support, sadly.
It’s definitely a vendor problem rather than an os problem. But it’s still a problem that the biggest manufacturer in the VR space has no support for Linux, hence i find it a bit farfetched to say VR is usable on Linux when the most popular hardware is not being supported by it’s vendor.
Though there are community efforts like Monado that looks pretty promising!
I mean if the vendor specifically decides NOT to support Linux AND there are viable alternative that do, e.g Valve Index, that run IMHO some of the best content, i.e Half-life:Alyx, then IMHO popularity is indeed important but it does show it’s not an OS problem.
Wait, if Steam VR works on Linux for Index are Quest HMDs not usable through Steam Link? Or does that still need the Oculus software installed? I’m not actually sure.
AFAIK it’s Windows only https://www.meta.com/en-gb/help/quest/articles/headsets-and-accessories/oculus-link/requirements-quest-link/ so some things work, e.g adb so you can install APKs or use scrcpy but you can’t rendering on desktop via e.g SteamVR and use the Quest officially.
Quest Link yes, I was referring to the alternative Steam Link app that is available on Quest. That’s maintained by Valve (and honestly works better than the wireless version of Quest Link, IMO). I was wondering if that works as an alternative, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there are still dependencies for controller inputs and head tracking that need Oculus software installed to work on the server side.
It is a good list ( from an “alternative to Windows” point of view ). In particular, you make a good case for the gaming side of things.
Unfortunately, even if that is all Linux needs, the hordes take time to arrive. The big impact of changes this year will be seen in the migration numbers 3 years from now. The biggest opportunity is probably the Windows 10 EOL and that is not until the end of next year. By then, many gamers will have Windows 11 capable hardware.
I do think that gamers and devs are the two groups likely to lead the charge on the next wave of Linux adoption. .NET dev in particular already has a lot of momentum on Linux with the transition from desktop to cloud and the primacy of Linux in container based workflows. Things are not quite there yet for .NET mobile dev on Linux. I bet most .NET devs that have left Windows are using Macs these days though. That said, that means they are already using tooling quite easily migrated to Linux including bath Rider and VS Code as you say. In the cloud, .NET must be “deployed” more to Linux than to Windows by now.
That last point is the most important I think. Windows is no longer the most important platform for Microsoft—Azure is. Microsoft is quite happy to let you use Linux on Azure. In fact, Azure pipelines and .NET itself are faster on Linux at this point. It is still “developers, developers, developers” for Microsoft but it is now more cloud than desktop. That changes the role of Windows at Microsoft.
I think it is perhaps less what we think about Windows and more about what Microsoft thinks about Windows that matters.
The other crown jewel is Office. Office 365 is a subscription. It is increasingly a “cloud” offering as well. Soon, they will not care about Windows as a delivery vehicle for Office either.
As Windows starts to matter less strategically, the question will increasingly be how to monetize the Windows user base more heavily. That is more ads, more data mining, more AI, and an increasingly crap experience. More and more, Windows Product Managers will be rewarded for their short-term gains and incremental revenue. Stewardship of the platform will move further and further into the background.
That is how Linux will win.
It won’t be this year though.
STOP
Office and Adobe Web native apps? What sources do you have?
But there’s also the Google Office Suite as another online office suite in addition to Office 365
You know that’s not what “native” means, right?
Web native.
Most people don’t care. And that says someone who replaced his Windows XP when Vista was the newest shit on the market (I also had a Vista laptop back then). With every Windows version people argued and posted about The Year of Linux Desktop. If you are talking about number of users, then Linux on Desktop will not dethrone Windows in 2024. Most people don’t care or the switch is painful in many ways. Don’t get your hopes too high. My following argumentation is critical, but I am a Linux fanboy. Have that in mind.
KDE/Gnome reaching stability and usability
What exactly do you mean by that? KDE and Gnome reached usability long time ago. However thanks to Wayland the stability got a huge hit, plus KDE was always a bit wonky in regard that. But otherwise these are great desktops with good usability for a long time now. Way better than what Apple or Windows has to offer.
Windows 10 coming to EOL
This has never mattered. Most people just switch or buy next Windows version.
.Net cross platform (in VSCode or Jetbrains Rider)
This is not new in 2024, or did something happen here?
Better LibreOffice/Word compatibility
Better than what? Than the previous version? This is always the case and people don’t switch from Windows to Linux because of that. After all, the application is available on Windows too.
… will be … before end of 2024 …
Will be remain to be seen if this is true. If there is one thing I learned is, don’t trust estimation when software will be finished.
NTSync coming in Kernel 6.11 for better Wine/Proton game performance and porting.
This has no impact on Proton, but Wine as far as I understand. Proton already has an alternative that is similar to NTSync. So from performance standpoint, it has no impact on Steam games.
Windows 10 coming to EOL
This has never mattered. Most people just switch or buy next Windows version.
Or keep on using Windows 10 and are happy not to be annoyed by updates any more.
Full of optimism. But why those points that relate not in the slightest to the layman? Also sources for half of your points?
Dethrones? No. Not in the sense it will overtake Windows in numbers.
Grows its gamer ‘market share’? Absolutely.
Dethrone? Probably not.
Start taking up a noticeable share of the demographic of systems? Probably
Before this year is out I’m switching my systems to Linux and before Windows 10 EoL I’m having to switch some relatives to Linux because their systems can’t handle Windows 11 and I’m not going to buy them new systems.
- Nvidia 555/560 will be out for a perfect no stutter Nvidia performance
God I really hope that’ll be true.
What else am I missing?
The fact that 90% of people don’t give a shit about ads, privacy or their operating system in general. They want a machine to open a browser, that’s it. If Windows comes pre-installed, they’ll use Windows.
The only realistic chance we’ve got is that MS shoots itself in the foot once more by all that Recall crap and businesses drop Windows. But that’s a long shot.
Businesses that already use Windows with all of the heavily integrated business-related stuff from Microsoft (AD, Exchange, SharePoint, Teams, Outlook, etc.) won’t change that just because a feature that most likely can be disabled via GPO.
Business versions of Windows either won’t have recall or the domain controllers will be able to enforce a rule against it.
It’s true. I only use applications. The OS is a thing in the background that needs to get setup fast so I click an application and now I’m using my computer. I spend more time in my BIOS than I do the back of my OS.
Whichever OS does that best will always be the most popular.
Yes, but there are things that absolutely drove be crazy in Windows. When you switch to Korean, it would default to Latin characters, and you have to switch to Korean characters. Which is fine if you always use the Korean layout and just toggle between Latin and Korean characters, like most Koreans.
But I am actually learning Korean and I speak more than one other language. When I switch to Chinese I expect it to type in Chinese. When I switch to Korean, I expect it to type in Korean.
The most bullshit thing about Windows is if the default behavior doesn’t suit you, there’s no way to change it. You’re stuck with how Windows works because it’s batteries included.
Right! Sadly…😭
Then people move to Mac.
I find most people don’t know of the alternatives but they are open to change as they are unhappy with current options that they are aware of. I’ve talked with a few people that were surprisingly open to to trying Linux. They didn’t know how easy it is to use and install but jumped on the opportunity as they were unhappy with Windows.
Until something breaks, or doesn’t have a GUI. The average user seeing a terminal means they will abandon it. And even if they are willing to handle a terminal to fix an issue, the toxic community members that flock to be the first to respond condescendingly to new users will turn them away permanently.
Linux communities have some of the most helpful users, but they also have people worse than a League of Legends game. And all it takes is one of them to turn the average person away forever.
Changing to Linux means, people…:
- need to have an understanding of operating systems, so they can think about alternatives
- need to be aware of the actual alternative
- need to be willing to learn something new
- need to be willing to leave some applications or games behind
- need to choose a Linux distribution
- need the technical ability and understanding to actually download, flash and boot from boot system, install it and setup initial, such as root password and such
These are basic and trivial stuff for us, but most normies don’t have this understanding and interest to go this far. And then it depends if they are happy and stay. Even if every PC manufacturer and distributor would offere the same PC with Windows and Linux, most would just choose Windows (probably). This is the current reality.
Something I’ve never checked for but…are there any linux installers that run from within windows? Shrink the windows partition, create a linux partition, populate it, install grub, and tell the user to reboot and choose linux? I think general lack of good ext4 fs support in windows might make things difficult, but you don’t actually need to do that part from within windows. There could be a second installer that’s triggered the first time they boot from grub.
I feel like a well supported installer like that would dramatically lower the barrier to entry. It could make dual booting windows a breeze for anyone who knows how to run an installer and reboot, which is what people actually want.
This sounds awesome idea. Not sure if there is a technical reason why this could not be done. On the other hand, Windows already has WSL (Windows Subsystem for Linux, is it still called like that?). All antivirus programs would probably go nuts. Windows itself is a restricted system and some things need to be done before booting into Windows. I assume if it was possible, then this would have been done before. At least I never heard about this. The best way is to have a preinstalled Linux on hardware.
Q4OS has an installer like that, but you have to change the boot order after installation, I don’t think it uses grub.
Such a hard agree. My wife won’t even let me install Linux, which takes out the more technical aspects of the above.
She’s just comfortable on Windows. Most people don’t want to learn something new and even fewer actually care about privacy.
Edit: Us Linux users assume that if Windows gets bad enough people will switch to Windows, when we all should face facts that normies will much sooner switch to Mac.
that normies will much sooner switch to Mac.
Rich normies.
Sure, for the mac pro line with specs that us nerds care about.
I think some of those M1 mac airs are really affordable now though. For casual use it would be a good device for a tech illiterate person.
Or a mini.
I have an M2 mini I use for iOS builds, cheap enough for me to buy and stick in the rack to use for remote builds. I got that a year ago for $600ish iirc.
Yeah man. Apple still screws people when it comes to ram and storage options of course, but the base products are actually pretty good for the money.
Mostly yes but there’s one other option that simplifies the whole thing: Chromebooks. They’re actually pretty decent for someone who doesn’t need much beyond a browser, a mail client, and a basic office suite.
Sure, they’re tied to Google with all that entails but they can be a real option for someone like a senior who relies on relatives for tech support.
… And then something happens and they want you to install Windows again.
As much as I like Linux, compared to Windows and Mac OS it’s high maintenance. Once in a while, things will bork themselves. And you need to have at least a rough understanding of what’s happening to fix it.
Also (and that’s not a Linux problem per se) people seem to think if Windows breaks, MS or they themselves are at fault, if Linux breaks, that weird nerd and his hacker stuff are at fault.
I have to disagree, at least in my experience.
Windows causes more problems, both for my mum and myself.Her only purpose of a PC is basically to open a web browser, answer some mails and plug in a USB from time to time. For her, Mint never made one single problem, except when the hard drive failed.
She really liked the “boringness” and the old Windows charme.And for me, Linux never made any big troubles in general. When I used Tumbleweed, there were a few papercuts (e.g. graphical glitches, program freezes, etc.) due to the bleeding edge, but nothing major.
And since I use Fedora Atomic, I completely forget that I use an OS in general. I never have to update anything, I can’t break my stuff, etc…
It’s the most “boring” and user friendly OS I’ve used, even more than MacOS and Windows. Only Android/ iOS are better in that regard.But I’ve never seen my OS just borking itself. If that should ever happen, I can easily roll back in a second and it will work again.
And you need to have at least a rough understanding of what’s happening to fix it.
If you can fix Windows (which made way more problems after updates for me) then fixing Linux is way easier. And if you’re an average person, then you go to a local repair shop and say “My PC broke” and they reinstall Windows for you.
Without fail, every Linux installation I had destroyed itself after a while.
Be it a full boot partition, some weird driver compatibility, etc, etc.
My Windows installations (granted, all work laptops) never destroyed themselves. Yes, some bugs here and there, but it worked well enough for home usage. You can’t discount that.
I’ve got the complete opposite to you. I’m in a household of 3 gaming desktops and 3 laptops, plus family who need help. I’ve been daily driving Linux for about a decade now and keep duel boot around just for Adobe products.
On all these machines, Linux hs been rock solid and never had issues that wasn’t user caused. Windows on the other hand drives me crazy with how much it fucks out. I have next to no control over it. It updates when it wants. I have no control over what’s updated. I hate the gods damn ads (and that’s on Windows 10) despite running de-crappifying software. I hate how many errors it has and how long it takes t troubleshoot them. I hate that if the system borks itself enough, it’s faster and less insanity inducing to just reinstall the whole os than try and fix it. I hate that Windows just gets progressively slower and laggier over time whereas my 6 year running Arch install was as fast as the day I installed it.
Without fail, every Linux installation I had destroyed itself after a while.
User-induced trauma, poor distros.
The fact those poor distros exist means yet another hurdle for the average user to switch to Linux
Okay, but understand that from for example my point of view, your perception appears really skewed because my GNU/Linux installations have never “destroyed [themselves] after a while”. Respectfully, I think that you project your Linux failures unto the entire ecosystem, based on issues that were unique to you.
people can’t handle installing windows, they won’t try anything else en masse either
They might just stop using computers
Back to the 80s/early 90s where the only people using computers were the ones that actually knew how to use computers? Hell yes, take me back.
That is indeed more likely than them switching to Linux.
Us computer nerds don’t understand that because we live our lives surrounded by computers, but there are plenty of households that don’t even have a computer, let alone one they want to switch to a niche OS.
We say this every fucking year! Come on, this is getting ridiculous! Stop it! There will never be a year of the Linux desktop and if anything, this post shows why.
So much of the Linux community is utterly detached from what really matters to most users and focus on things that 80% of people won’t ever understand, care about or even use.
We focus on this and meanwhile, little quality of life features constantly get ignored when these are the real things that users will encounter and that will piss them off. They get treated as trivial. They get ignored in favor of other things.
Somebody mentioned it here. I saw it and I didn’t need them to mention it to want to say it. It’s already something that’s pissing me off. On Fedora for my Framework Laptop there is no way to adjust the scrolling speed on my trackpad which is moronically fast.
We are on the 40th release of Fedora, the 46th release of GNOME, and somehow this still isn’t baked in. I still have to go look around and use the fucking terminal to do something this basic. When some of them try Linux and will eventually push them to go back to Windows. And when users complain about this, what do we get? A bunch of elitists telling them to fuck off to go back to Windows, which I also saw as responses to this complaint about the trackpad.
Listen, Linux is an amazing project and I love it. I daily drive it. I don’t use Windows anywhere in my life. I haven’t touched OS in like two years at the very least. So many things that we are celebrating as brand new things that are finally working properly are things that already work by default on Windows and have been for years. We’re not going to convince people by mentioning that, “oh, we fixed this thing that’s been working forever on Windows.” It works on Linux now. People need more than this.
You want to know the sad truth? Here we go. We, collectively here, users of platform like Lemmy, are a vocal minority who are detached from the reality of most users. We care about ads, we care about privacy and so on, but the reality is most that people don’t. Most people won’t even notice that those things are there. For so many people, Windows is just the thing that stands between them and launching Chrome. It already works for them. There’s no reason for them to switch.
We are all way too invested in what runs on our computers and we forget that we are just us. Most people are not like us. Privacy scandals stop us from using stuff like social media and so on, but it clearly hasn’t stopped most of the world.
People heard about the shit that Meta was and is doing. Did people stop using Instagram? No, they didn’t. People know what Google is doing, how many of them switched to DuckDuckGo? A clinical moron turning the platform into a far-right haven didn’t stop most users from using Twitter.
The API bullshit didn’t stop most users from using Reddit. Sure there were protest, but I guarantee you that 99% who took part in the blackout just went back to it after. A lot of us didn’t. We left. We’re here now. But we’re still a tiny minority.
Ask a Firefox user did telling Chrome users that privacy was important ever worked? I’m sure you will get examples of it working but it’s a minority. Most people don’t give a shit and they use Chrome.
I don’t have a solution. I’m sorry, I made this long-ass comment but I don’t have much else to say. I don’t have a good solution to this problem.
Seriously. I think Linux users expend 10x the energy worrying about ads on Windows than actual windows users. If you’re used to seeing hundreds of ads / day on the web, why the hell would you care about an occasional onedrive popup.
Re touchpads totally agree as well, I installed fedora kde on my mom’s abandoned laptop a couple weeks ago and it was atrocious. Limited gestures, no configurability, no smooth scroll, no scroll momentum except in apps that implement it manually, scrolling speeds totally off. I managed to fix most of these, but regular people can’t be expected to.
Battery life, for another is unpredictable and quite bad. Most people I’ve talked to seem to assume performant/light = efficient when it comes to Linux. This is not the case. Once again, solutions exist, but they are not accessible to a regular person.
Lol and we’re forgetting the biggest QOL feature of all: actually coming installed with pre built computers.
Chrome OS was the only one to ever make a dent.
Without that this will always be a “power” user OS. People just want it to work.
- Windows 11 getting Copilot+ Recall
And a shit-ton of ads.
And the kitchen sink
Oh wait that’s the next KDE release
Tl;Dr “I want my~ I want my~ I want my NixOS~”. Yes, I am that old. Shut up.
I love the enthusiasm… but I must disagree :( unfortunately, much to my sheegrin bacuse I want to spite Linux commenter on this sub so badly because they are a bunch of brogrammers, but for me the year of the Linux desktop has to happen at the hands of device manufacturers. “Monopoly-by-default” is real, always has been, and never ever really left. Don’t take your eyes off Microsoft or Apple for one second - the bastards - because when you do, you fall into the vendor lock-in trap.
I personally think the EU should publish a bespoke bootloader with a gallery of operating systems that can be fetched using PXE, with image signing and checking of course, sort of like the “browser choice” alternative for OS’s. It doesn’t need to be the main bootloader, but it has to be available - and most likely GRUB2… because GRUB2 is everywhere. It’s what boots MacOS on M* machines. It’s the one boot loader to rule them all. What I’m saying is we’re in the year of GRUB2.
Anyways, outside my ideal there’s really nothing that will bring the “year of the Linux desktop” popularity wise, besides a large vendor relying on the actual Linux desktop stack - which is possible, but there’s probably a reason why Samsung bet on Enlightenment, and it’s not because it’s creator is so enlightened. MIT spelt in South Korean translates to MINE.
One thing 2024 has also stood for is cleaning house. GNOME was caught breaking their own strict rules, KDE keeps ironing out the ancient from the Plasma desktop paradigm, though now KWin has better Wayland support than Mutter for some reason, even though one has had Wayland support for years (a real tortoise and the hare situation this), and people are obsessed with a display server that nobody develops for anymore. (XWayland is XWayland, not X11). So finally we’re in the year of Wayland. Good bye, screen tearing. Hello breaking with protocol and causing screen corruption. Oy vey.
In regards to developers, developers, developers, developers, developers, developers, developers, developers, developers, developers, developers, developers, developers, and developers, then I look at the Rust stack, I look at the Zed stack, even the C# stack, or even a certain GUI framework with its own IDE built entirely using its own Emscripten SDK (can’t remember the name for the life of me). Here I see some new ways of doing the same thing and creating cross-platform solutions from the get-go, that might bring in new products and services on the Linux side.
But we already have access to more private and public services in software form on Linux than ever before before, so maybe the year of the Linux desktop passed us by but as a lackluster metric and Linux as a desktop (or LaaD as I’d like to call it, because I’m a moron) really won’t be popularized until one of the major vendor completely screws the Pooch, and then someone brings a solution based on the Linux stack. Come on, Copilot+ and System76…
Also, NixOS is finally trying to fix it’s issues, which is great, because Nix could realistically be a reproducible stack across systems, which can be tested by spitting out a single flake file. I see it as an addition to Flatpaks, Snaps and even AppImages. I want to petition Ableton to bring Live Linux, because I know in my heart of hearts that they’ve hired people with NixOS experience and that the Push 3 standalone needs some form of OS. But NixOS is a perfect example of why people are asking what happened to the year of the CoC’s? Maybe we can do a reboot.
So in conclusion, I’m over here waiting for the year of NixOS, which will be a lackluster event where nobody is happy with, most likely celebrated by another institutional figure having to walk it off. See you in 10-15 years.
